Why Didn’t It Translate Into Higher Marks for the President?
The Registered Voter Economic Confidence Index improved marginally in July from 54.4 to 56.4, with the two subindexes converging in positive territory. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for July 2025.
The narrowing between the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index could signal a potential end to recent volatility. However, it could also signal a plateau in economic activity among voters for the month.
The President Situation Index rose modestly from 53.5 to 56.3 in July, fueled by more positive views towards both sub-indicators. Positive views on Current Business Conditions came in at 34.1%, with only 26.4% negative and a still sizable 39.5% remaining neutral. Current Employment Conditions posted at 35.2% positive and 27.5% negative, with 37.3% holding neutral views.
The Expectations Index—comprised of six-month outlooks on business, employment and the inflation-related total family income sub-indicator—notably rose by just a single point from 55.4 to 56.4 in July. The Business Conditions 6-Month Outlook came in at 39.4% positive and 31.3% negative. The Employment Conditions 6-Month Outlook was 40.4% positive and 30.4% negative. The Total Family Income 6-Month Outlook—a key inflationary gauge—was 37.0% positive and 28.9% negative.
“A convergence of the two subindexes historically forecasts an end to volatile trends in economic confidence levels among voters,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said in a statement. “However, when expectations fail to outpace present sentiment, it suggests voters could put a freeze on increased economic activity such as consumer spending and hiring for the month.”
“That said, the fact the index converged in positive territory is a positive sign for the economy.”
Increased economic confidence did not translate into more positive remarks for the administration or the in-power party. The Public Polling Project for July 2025 also asked voters to score how Donald Trump was handling his job as president. The president’s approval rating is now in slightly negative territory, a sharp decline from his all-time high shortly after Inauguration Day and complete reversal from May.
That stands in contrast to prior approval rating results when the Registered Voter Economic Confidence Index came in at similar levels. In January 2025, both economic confidence and President Trump’s approval rating hit the highest levels ever on record.
Even in May when confidence receded but remains positive, presidential approval did, as well. In the summer of 2021, former President Joe Biden still enjoyed both heightened levels of confidence as well as positive approval ratings from voters.
“The disconnect would suggest that—fair or not—voters are not giving President Trump significant credit for their positive and increased levels of economic optimism,” Director Baris, added. “The remainder of the questions in this month’s survey very clearly suggest voters were less captured by an economic message, and more by other events at home and in the Middle East.”
Thus far, and despite uncertainties over tariffs and taxes, the Registered Voter Economic Confidence Index has been markedly more positive under President Trump than former President Biden.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,022 registered voters nationwide from July 12 to July 14, 2025. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and region. The overall sampling error is ±1.8% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
