Incumbent Thomas Massie Leads Challenger Ed Gallrein, Though Spending Is Taking a Toll
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds what appears to be a modest but durable lead over challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky House District 4 being held on May 19, 2026. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project and the project will conduct a final survey in the district next month.
When asked initially, Rep. Massie leads Mr. Gallrein by just over 2 points, 42.9% to 40.6% with a sizable percentage at 16.5% declaring they remain undecided. However, when asked to whom they are leaning, the incumbent’s lead grows to 52.4% to 47.6%, with undecided voters breaking for Rep. Massie 57.5% to 42.5%.
“Kentucky House District 4 includes the Cincinnati Kentucky burbs in the North, Appalachia and exurban Louisville,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said. “It’s known for its independent streak, and it’s very clear why just from interviews with Registered Republicans.”
Though Kentucky is a closed primary state, Republican identification varies much like the geography of the district. When asked, 76.4% of Registered Republicans identified with the Republican Party, but 20.1% identified as Independents and another 3.5% as Democrats. Of those who identified as Republicans, 60.1% align with America First/MAGA compared to 32.6% who align with Traditional Republicanism.
When those who identify as America First/MAGA were asked to choose between the two, America First easily won out over MAGA, 67.8% to 32.2%. Nearly 1 in 4 (23.0%) of the 20.1% of Registered Republicans who identified as Independent say they “previously identified with America First / MAGA, but now no longer do”. Again, that’s higher than the national average right now (Range ≈15-18%).
Only 26.7% say they consider themselves in alignment with the Republican Party. A large plurality of them (45.0%) say they “share little in common with either” and 23.7% equally align. Rep. Massie holds a massive lead with that large plurality 73.5% to 26.5% and similarly with all Independent-Identifying Republicans, 73.7% to 26.3%.
President Donald Trump has endorsed Ed Gallrein and Super PACs have poured millions in outside dollars into the district. Voters report a barrage of attacks against the incumbent, with nearly 7 in 10 (68.9%) saying they’ve been exposed to negative ads attacking Rep. Massie. The incumbent’s fundraising has surged amid this challenge by any normal measure, but it still pales in comparison to outside groups supporting Mr. Gallrein.
That money and those attacks have certainly taken a toll on Rep. Massie. A combined 46.2% of likely voters have a positive or favorable view of him compared to 46.3% who have an unfavorable view. Only 7.6% have no opinion. While his image is net positive at 36.6% favorable to 31.5% unfavorable, 31.9% of likely voters still do not have an opinion of the challenger.
Further, the challenger is almost absent a ground game or grassroots support, with only 8.6% reporting to have interacted with door knockers or campaigners supporting Mr. Gallrein. That is significantly less than the 35.5% who say they have been contacted personally by campaigners for the incumbent. There are also disparities in phone bank contacts and text message campaigns, albeit smaller than those on the ground.
Of note, the percentage of Registered Republicans who disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President (32.8%) is higher than the national average, driven in large part to his handling of Inflation / Cost of Living (53.9% vs. 44.7%, the Iran War (59.1% vs. 39%), and being underwater on the Epstein Files (40.9% vs 50.0%).
That has limited the positive impact of the president’s endorsement to largely 65 and older voters, particularly those living in urban and rural. While Mr. Gallrein holds a healthy 65.0% to 35.0% lead among reliable primary voters who are 65 and older, he trails among every other age group. Rep. Massie leads overwhelmingly 78.5% to 21.5% with voters 18-29 years old, 64.9% to 35.1% with voters 30-44, and more narrowly 53.3% to 46.7% among 45-64, a key swing age group projected to be the largest voting bloc.
“This appears to be a close race that has tightened over the previous month, and we’ll poll it again next month,” Director Baris added. “But for now, Rep. Massie’s lead is holding because the challenger has not been able to expand his appeal beyond older voters in isolated parts of the district.”
“While reliable and vote rich as a share of the primary electorate, the incumbent’s broader strength that extends beyond Boone County is so far proving difficult to crack. It would take a larger surge in older voters with a high school degree or less, and as of now, they’re just not engaged in voting.”
Boone is slightly backing the challenger 51.3% to 48.7%, but it’s higher than district average of younger voters appears to limiting his growth potential. Voters ages 18-44 could account for 40% to 45% of the county vote. Kenton County is backing the incumbent by a significant 64.5% to 35.5% margin, perhaps not as surprising given it’s more educated voting electorate, albeit one that has a more mixed age distribution.
Campbell County and the rest of the district including rural counties —dominated by older, more habitual GOP primary voters—are largely split between the two.
Explaining Independent Streak in Kentucky House District 4
For more insight into what gives Kentucky House District 4 it’s independent streak, check out How Republicans Identify in Kentucky House District 4 (Crosstabs).
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 433 Registered Republican likely primary voters and 600 registered voters districtwide from April 3 to April 4 and April 6 to April 7, 2026. No interviews were conducted on Easter Sunday. Interviews conducted online (60) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race, education, region and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
