Registered Voter Economic Confidence Index Declines, But Remains Off Historic Lows
Economic confidence in both current and future conditions fell among registered voters at the start of the second quarter (Q2) in 2026. The Registered Voter Economic Confidence Index (RVECI) conducted by BIG DATA POLL for the Public Polling Project in April fell into negative territory at 44.9, down from a slightly positive reading at 50.6.
- Views on Current Business Conditions: Views on current/present business conditions.
- Views on Current Employment Conditions: Views on current/present employment conditions.
- Expectations for Business Conditions: Expectations regarding business conditions six months from now.
- Expectations for Employment Conditions: Expectations regarding employment conditions six months from now.
- Expectations for Total Family Income: Expectations regarding total family income six months from now.
The highest reading for the Registered Voter Economic Confidence Index (RVECI) at 59.0 was measured in January 2025, shortly after President Donald J. Trump took the oath of office for his second term. The lowest reading overall was taken in May 2022 under President Joseph R. Biden.
Present Situation Index
The Present Situation Index came in at 43.5, weighed down by more negative views on the employment situation than both the prior reading and current business condition. That’s the lowest reading since October 2022, though not quite as low as the 36.4 level it posted that month.
Only 28.3% said they had a positive view on current/present business conditions while more than 1 in 3 (34.5%) said they had a negative and 37.2% expressed a neutral view. The 45.1 reading is the lowest since Q1 2024. Roughly the same (28.3%) held a positive view on current employment conditions, though a higher percentage (38.7%) said their view was negative. The 41.8 reading is the lowest since Q4 2021.
Expectations Index
The Expectations Index came in at 45.9, with all three sub-indicators on the six-month outlook falling from the prior reading to comparable levels to each other. That’s also the lowest reading since it posted 39.8 in October 2022.
Roughly 1 in 3 (31.3%) expressed positive expectations for business conditions six months from now, though more (35.9%) said they expect more negative conditions. The reading at 46.6 is the lowest since Q4 2022. Nearly as many (32.0%) expressed positive expectations on employment conditions six months from now, but 37.6% held negative expectations. That 46.0 reading is also the lowest since Q4 2022.
Expectations for total family income six months from now—a key inflation-related sub-indicator that tells us whether registered voters expect their household to cover the bills—was also more negative in April. Just 29.2% expressed positive expectations for the six-month outlook, while 35.6% were negative and a nearly identical percentage (35.3%) were neutral. The 45.1 reading is the lowest since Q1 2024.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,176 registered voters and 2,874 likely voters nationwide from April 25 to April 28, 2026. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±1.8% for the registered voter sample and ±1.7% for the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
