Vice President JD Vance Maintains Dominant Lead for 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination
The first look at the battle for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026 finds Democrats maintaining their lead over Republicans on the Generic Ballot. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for January 2026.
On the initial Generic Ballot without leaners, 46.1% of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 42.0% say they would vote for the Republican candidate. That’s a marginally stronger lead than the initial 44.9% to 41.8% edge Democrats enjoyed in the final poll of 2025 conducted in December.
As was also the case last month, among those “certain to vote” Democrats maintain a slightly stronger edge 48.1% to 43.1%. Last month, however, Democrats led with this group 49.6% to 41.3%. The more uncertain “likely to vote” is largely split at 37.8% to 37.1% in favor of Democrats.
However, Democrats have expanded their advantage among those who are “Extremely Enthusiastic” to vote, 53.6% to 41.8%. That’s a notably wider margin than the 51.5% to 43.0% lead Democrats posted among this group last month.
When evenly split undecided voters are leaned, Democrats lead Republicans by a 48.2% to 44.2% margin, roughly a 2-point net gain for both parties. Among those “Certain to vote”, Democrats stretch their legs with a 51.9% to 43.4% advantage. That gap widens further to 54.6% to 42.3% among those “Extremely Enthusiastic” to vote in 2026.
“While the change in the topline margin compared to last month isn’t statistically significant, the advantage Democrats hold in likelihood to vote and voter enthusiasm increased and these groups tend to predict an over-performance,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said in a statement. “We are now well into the period when Generic Ballots become predictive of the popular vote winner for the U.S. House.”
“If Republicans are going to experience a comeback, something has got to change sooner rather than later.”
Director Baris did note that the one bright spot for Republicans was an improvement among those “Likely to vote” and “Very Enthusiastic” to vote. Republicans do lead among these secondary indicators both on the initial Generic ballot and Leaned Generic Ballot, 47.5% to 41.0% and 49.6% to 42.8%, respectively.
2028 Presidential Nominations
Vice President JD Vance continues to hold a dominant lead for the 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination. He leads among likely Republican primary voters with 46.0%, up 1 points from the prior survey conducted in mid-December. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails in a distant second place with just 9.5%, with Health and Human Services Secretary tied with Secretary of State Marco Rubio for third at 6.8%. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has been most open about his aspirations for the nomination in 2028, is stagnant at just 3.9%.
Among those “Certain to vote” for the nomination, Vice President Vance’s support increases to 48.7% compared to only a 0.1% gain for Governor DeSantis to 9.6%. The gain is even more pronounced among those “Extremely Enthusiastic” to vote, where the vice president takes a commanding 52.8% to 9.2% lead over the governor.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris also maintained her lead for the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination, though it could hardly be considered a dominant lead compared to current Vice President JD Vance across the aisle. Harris edges out California Governor Gavin Newsom, 31.4% to 22.2%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg trails in third at 11.7% and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surpassed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for fourth, 6.4% to 6.1%.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,280 registered voters and 2,909 likely voters nationwide from January 22 to January 24, 2026. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 or Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±1.9% and ±2.1% for the 2028 Presidential Nominations at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
