Dissatisfaction With Administration Weighs Down GOP’s Leading, Strongest Candidate for 2028
California Governor Gavin Newsom now leads Vice President JD Vance in both a hypothetical head-to-head and three-way matchup for the 2028 presidential election. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL for 1776 Law Center as part of the annual Four Freedoms Poll in partnership with the Public Polling Project.
Gov. Newsom leads Vice President Vance 44.2% to 39.1% with 16.7% undecided, the first time ever the Democrat led in polling conducted by BIG DATA POLL. When undecideds are asked to whom they lean, Newsom holds his lead and slightly expands his margin, 52.7% to 47.3%. Among likely voters, Newsom leads Vance 53.2% to 46.8%.
“Dissatisfaction with the administration among the broader electorate and disaffection among key demographics in their coalition have taken their toll on the 2028 GOP frontrunner,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “As the president’s running mate, there’s almost no way for the vice president to escape it.”
“Fair or not, it’s the nature of the game and at least the case for now.”
As previously reported, approval of President Donald Trump has declined to a new all-time low 42.4%, as voter frustration over policy direction further hardens negative opinions. Democrats widened their lead over Republicans on the Generic Ballot in February, 45.3% to 37.3%, solidifying their advantages on certainty and enthusiasm to vote.
The Direction of Country Index posted the widest negative spread since January 2025 at -23.4.The percentage of registered voters who say the country is headed in the right direction fell to just 33.6%, the lowest since former President Joe Biden left office in January 2025. Further, the percentage who say it’s off on the wrong track hit 57.0%, the highest since December 2024 and up from last month’s reading at 53.6%.
Vice President Vance has consistently led Governor Newsom in previous surveys conducted by BIG DATA POLL, holding advantages that range from marginal at 2 points to significant at 8 points.
What If Thomas Massie Runs as an Independent in 2028?
In a three-way matchup, Gov. Newsom leads Vice President Vance 42.3% to 37.2%, with Rep. Massie, R-Ky., taking an initial 8.3% before leaners and 12.3% undecided. When undecideds are leaned, Newsom again gains a point on the margin at 47.2% to 41.3%, and Rep. Massie breaks double-digits at 11.5%.
Among likely voters, Newsom leads Vance and Massie 47.9% to 41.4% and 10.7%. Overall, the findings suggest Rep. Massie pulls support from both candidates equally on the initial ballot, but draws slightly more support from the vice president when undecided voters are leaned.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 2,012 registered voters and 1,805 likely voters nationwide from February 16 to February 18, 2026. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±2.1% for the registered voter sample and ±2.3% for the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. This survey was conducted with partner sponsorship from 1776 Law Center. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight. The Four Freedoms Poll is an annual partnership with the Public Polling Project sponsored by 1776 Law Center to gauge support and/or opposition to issues relating to food, financial, medical and political freedoms. 1776 Law Center helps those who cannot afford counsel and public advocates to obtain capable, competent counsel and public advocates, especially when their case broadly impacts civil liberties.
