Republican Disaffection, Realignment Woes Risk Their Majority Next Year
President Donald Trump’s approval rating continued to improve marginally in the year-end poll for 2025, but Republicans continue to struggle. Roughly 47.3% approve of the job the president is doing and 49.7% disapprove. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for December 2025.
The president entered office this year with an astonishingly high 55.5% approval rating, with only 37.4% disapproval. His numbers fell but remained fairly strong until May, and collapsed after the administration pivoted to foreign policy and the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites on behalf of Israel. His approval rating bottomed out in late October and has recovered somewhat toward the end of the year.
Though the president’s approval rating has improved in December and is now just slightly underwater, the Intensity Index remains fairly negative (-14.1) and it has not translated to increased support for Republicans on the Generic Ballot. The president’s party continues to struggle both in register and likely voter samples, with several key indicators pointing to a potential electoral disaster for them next November if the environment remains unchanged.
“There really is no point to continue to beat a dead horse,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “It should be abundantly clear from all the data we collected over this year why Republicans are now losing.”
“Our Trump Administration Focus Tracker since the summer has shown—unless it’s to broker a peace deal—American voters want him to focus on domestic issues such as cost of living and healthcare, not military conflicts overseas.”
Democrats lead Republicans on the initial Generic Ballot 44.9% to 41.8% among likely voters. More concerning for the GOP, among those “certain to vote” Democrats hold a 49.6% to 41.3% advantage. Democrats lead 51.5% to 43.0% among those “Extremely Enthusiastic” to vote, and 45.5% to 43.2% among those “Very Enthusiastic”.
That’s all largely due to 77.3% of Democrats stating they are “Certain to vote” and having the vote history to back it up. That compares to 69.7% of Republicans who say the same. Likely voter screens traditionally tighten as we draw closer to the election, which would worsen the picture for Republicans if it doesn’t change.
When undecided voters are leaned, Democrats lead Republicans by a 47.9% to 44.4% margin, a net gain of a point before the lean. Among those “Certain to vote”, Democrats stretch their legs with a 51.9% to 43.4% edge.
The Direction of Country Index ends the year with 36.1% saying the country is headed in the right direction juxtaposed to 53.6% who say it’s off on the wrong track and 10.3% undecided. That marks a slightly widened negative spread at -17.5 versus -14.1 in the middle of the month.
However, just before the country elected President Trump in November 2024, only 27.7% said the country was headed in the right direction, while 60.4% said it was off on the wrong track. Simply put, the -32.3 Direction of County spread was cut in half during the president’s first year in office.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,412 likely voters nationwide from December 26 to December 28, 2025. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 or Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±1.9% at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
