Democrats Expand Generic Ballot Lead Heading Into August, Voters Unwilling to Pay Higher Prices for Unpopular War
President Donald Trump’s approval rating took a big hit in July amid rising gas prices due to the Iran War, and Democrats expanded their lead on Generic Ballot. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for July 2026.
Last month, the president’s approval rating began to bounce back following the announcement of a peace deal with Iran. He improved significantly overall and on every single issue tracked by BIG DATA POLL.Now, the percentage of voters who approve of the job he is doing came in at 38.7%—the lowest level for either term ever measured in this survey—while the percentage disapproving rose to an all-time high 58.9%.
“Republicans are quickly running out of time to improve their outlook for November,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said in a statement. “This isn’t complicated. The Iran War was always unpopular and nobody should ever have expected voters to be willing to suffer increased pain at the pump for something they never supported.”
The Intensity Index—the difference between the percentage of those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing in office—increased in negativity in July to -26.1, just shy of the record negative -26.3 measured by BIG DATA POLL for Donald Trump’s Presidential Approval Trend back in May 2026. There is now again a larger percentage of voters who strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing in office than the total percentage of registered voters who approve.
Generic Ballot for the U.S. House
Democrats have once again expanded their lead over Republicans on the Generic Ballot among likely voters 48.2% to 36.5%—up from 48.0% to 39.1% in June—with 8.4% choosing “someone else” and the remaining 10.6% undecided. When undecided likely voters are leaned, Democrats maintain their 11-point margin at 50.4% to 39.3%, wider than the 50.2% to 41.0% lead last survey.
During the Iran War, Democrats have posted two of the largest leads for either party on the Generic Ballot ever measured by BIG DATA POLL. However, this is the second month in a row in which Republicans held their own with undecided voters and the leaners, and margin changes are largely now due to Republicans gaining and losing vote share, as opposed to Democrats further consolidating their lead.
Trust to Handle Issues
On the first seven issues leading the Rank Distribution for Most Important Voting Issues, Democrats hold statistically significant leads on five, a marginal 0.1 lead on one (Crime / Safety), and Republicans lead by 2.8 points on Immigration / Border Security. On Inflation / Cost of Living, which is the most important voting issue for 2026, Democrats now hold a commanding 10.6-point lead.
Direction of Country: Right Track OR Wrong Track?
The Direction of Country Index started the year with 36.3% saying the country is headed in the right direction, essentially unchanged from the year-end reading at 36.1%. In July that percentage fell to just 29.7%, tied with May for lowest level since former President Joe Biden left office in January 2025.
The percentage of registered voters who say it’s off on the wrong track hit 60.5%, the highest since August 2024 and up from last month’s reading at 57.2%. That also marks the widest negative spread since December 2025 at -30.8 compared to just -7.2 in May 2025 before the president bombed three of Iran’s nuclear sites.
White House Focus Tracker
Last year, motivated by repeated concerns raised by voters during interviews, BIG DATA POLL created the White House Policy Focus Tracker. It directly gauges voters’ views towards the administration’s, and indirectly measures the where voters prefer the administration to focus their efforts.
In July, the percentage of voters who said the administration is too focused on foreign policy set a new high at 62.7%, eclipsing the previous record measured in March.
“At this point, voters feel like they are beating a dead horse,” Director Baris added. “They could not have been more clear over the last year plus, and it would appear voters are gearing up to punish Republicans pretty badly for ignoring their priorities and wishes.”
Voters Do Not Think the Unpopular Iran War Is Worth Paying Higher Gas Prices
This month, BIG DATA POLL asked voters a series of questions about their support for or opposing to the Iran War, the proposal to simply pull out for peace, and rising gas prices. A whopping 68.2% support reopening negotiations to end the Iran War, to include 43.6% of registered voters and 45.3% of likely voters. Importantly, the president’s own voters and self-identified Republicans support doing so at a higher rate than Democrats.
Certain political commentators supportive of the Iran War have suggested Americans should be willing to pay $4.00 per gallon for gas in order for the U.S. to achieve it’s goals. But a similar supermajority (67.4%) disagrees, stating they do not believe the conflict is worth paying that price at the pump.
BIG DATA POLL further asked about specific prices at the pump voters are willing to pay. Nearly 4 in 10 replied they flatly think “fighting the Iran War is not worth paying more per gallon for gas”, while another 27.6% said they’re not willing to pay more than the roughly $3.00 per gallon cost for gas before the war started. Only 1 in 10 (10.2%) said they were willing to pay $4.00 per gallon.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 2,922 registered voters and 2,617 likely voters nationwide from July 27 – 29, 2026. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±1.8% for the registered voter sample and ±1.7% for the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
