Base Depression, Defections, and Trust to Handle Issues Continue to Plague Republicans
Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Craig in the race for U.S. Senate in Florida. The Sunshine State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL and the 1776 Law Center as part of the Public Polling Project for October 2026. The race for governor is tight, with Republican Rep. Byron Donalds holding a slight edge over former Republican Congressman-turned Democrat David Jolly.
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1201 registered voters and 1129 likely voters in Florida for the 1776 Law Center and Public Polling Project from October 26 – 30, 2026. Interviews conducted online (≈40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (≈60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±3.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
