Democrats Maintain Large Generic Congressional Ballot in the North Star State
Democrat Peggy Flanagan holds a slight lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for U.S. Senate in Minnesota. The North Star State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for September 2026.
Lt. Governor Flanagan leads the former sports broadcaster Tafoya 40.0% to 37.8% among likely voters on the initial ballot. When undecided voters are asked to lean, the Democrat’s 2-point lead among likely voters holds at 45.8% to 43.6%,. Undecided likely voters break nearly evenly between the two candidates.
“BIG DATA POLL’s results in Minnesota are the latest indication we are headed for a midterm in which coalition realignment is likely to lead to surprises,” Director Rich Baris said in a statement. “Republicans have an opportunity to offset expected losses in much redder states with a pickup in a more traditionally blue state after Democrats nominated a weak candidate.”
“However, it’s worth noting undecided voters are more urban and suburban than rural.”
By area, leaned urban voters are backing the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota 44.9% to 29.5%, while suburbanites go Democratic 44.5% to 35.8%. Rural voters back the Republican candidate 48.3% to 27.4%. By region, Hennepin / Ramsey (Twin Cities) back Lt. Governor Flanagan 52.1% to 36.4%, and the surrounding Metro Counties (Twin City Suburbs) also back her 48.1% to 42.5%. Mrs. Tafoya leads in 47.0% to 44.2% in Northern Minnesota and 53.5% to 33.7% in Southern Minnesota.
Generic Congressional Ballot
The North Star State is crucial to Democrats and their attempt to flip the U.S. House of Representatives, though mostly the discussion at this point surrounds the size of that majority. Democrats leads on the statewide Generic Congressional Ballot in Minnesota by a significant 10-point margin, 47.0% to 37.0%.
With undecided voters being forced to lean, their 10-point margin holds and they reach the critical 50%-threshold at 49.6% to 39.7%.
Trust to Handle Issues
Likely voters in Minnesota trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the majority of the most important voting issues in the 2026 midterm cycle.
Democrats are more trusted than Republicans on Cost of Living / Inflation (Rank 1) by a 44.1% to 34.2% margin, with 15.5% choosing neither party. Democrats have a 45.4% to 36.7% on Economy / Jobs (Rank 2). Democrats are also more trusted to handle Healthcare / ObamaCare (Rank 3), 51.8% to 29.7%.
While a large percentage chose “neither” (24.2%) on Corruption / Accountability (Rank 3), but Democrats edged Republicans 38.7% to 32.1%. Republicans lead 40.2% to 37.4% on Crime / Safety (Rank 5) and 40.5% to 39.2% on Immigration / Border Security (Rank 6); 41.4% to 38.5%; 47.7% to 39.2% on Foreign Policy / National Security (Rank 6); and 45.3% to 32.9%.
2028 President Nominations
Vice President Harris leads a crowded field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination with 24.3% among likely voters in the North Star State. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez comes in second with 15.3%, Pete Buttigieg comes in third place with 12.3%, and Gavin Newsom fourth with 10.5%.
Vice President JD Vance leads his crowded field for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in his home state with 40.0% among likely voters. Marco Rubio places second with 22.5%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in third with 8.3%.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 622 likely voters in Minnesota from September 29 – 30, 2026. Interviews conducted online (≈40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (≈60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
