National Signal Finds Large Enthusiasm Gap, Independent Voters Favoring Democrats
With only days until the midterm elections, BIG DATA POLL finds Democrats maintain a clear advantage and Republicans remain in danger of losing their majorities in both chambers. The National Signal was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for October 2026.
Generic Ballot for the U.S. House
Democrats lead Republicans 52.3% to 40.0 on the Generic Ballot, built in no small part by a 58.3% to 36.6% margin among those who say they’ve already voted. Of those who had planned to vote early during the fieldwork or intend to vote over the weekend, Democrats lead 51.8% to 30.8%.
Early vote indicates Democrats are doing a far better job banking their low propensity and new voters ahead of Election Day, while Republican clawback efforts have been dominated by cannibalizing their higher propensity votes. The National Signal can see this very clearly, leaving reliable voters for Democrats on the table and Republicans facing the difficult scenario of having to get less reliable voters to the polls on Election Day. That has resulted in far more narrow Election Day advantage than what has been customary for Republicans in recent years.
While other pollsters are beginning to catch up, Democrats first opened up a double-digit lead in BIG DATA POLL Generic Congressional Ballot tracking in April following the start of the unpopular Iran War. That lead narrowed to single digits briefly after the the president announced the peace deal in June, but widened again in July after the deal fell apart.
“BIG DATA POLL has led the field identifying a widening Generic Ballot that has pushed the Democratic lead outside historical norms, as well as the trends that have become the central story of the 2026 midterm election cycle,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said in a statement. “After initially stripping Republicans of their lead on the Generic Ballot immediately following Operation Midnight Hammer, voters could not have been more clear about their domestic priorities, their opposition to the war and concerns over foreign policy distracting from affordability and the economy.”
“It’s now almost certain that voters intend to punish Republicans pretty badly for ignoring their wishes and concerns.”
Presidential Job Approval Rating
President Donald Trump’s approval rating took a big hit in July amid rising gas prices and the collapse of the very popular Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) outlining a peace agreement to end the Iran War. In September, his approval rating marginally improved on the spread.
This month, 39.3% of registered voters approve of the job he’s doing as president, only marginally changed from 38.8% and that includes just 20.5% who “strongly” approve. Meanwhile, 59.1% disapprove (marginally increasing from 58.5%) and the percentage “strongly” disapproving increased from 45.7% to 47.3%.
The Intensity Index—the difference between the percentage of those who strongly approve and strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing in office—matched September at -26.8. That’s a match for the negative record on the Intensity Index during his second term, eclipsing the -26.3 reading measured in May a few months after the outbreak of the Iran War.
2026 Final Rank Distribution for Most Important Issues
BIG DATA POLL asks voters to rank the most frequently cited voting issues. Rank distribution gives us a clearer, more granular understanding of the narrative surrounding a particularly election. Thought it has remained largely stable over the year regarding the top three, a few shakeups in the final few months are noteworthy.
Artificial Intelligence A.I. / Data Centers soared our of nowhere to end up in the top 10 at Rank 8. Accountability / Corruption came from behind at Rank 12 to end at Rank 5. Immigration / Border Security has been bumped from Rank 3 at the start of 2026 to Rank 5.
Voters Trust Democrats to Handle the Most Important Issues
Democrats hold the advantage on all but one of the top voting issues in 2026: Immigration / Border Security. The largest lead for Democrats is on the issue of Healthcare / ObamaCare, while the most narrow is now on the traditionally strong GOP issue, Crime / Safety. Foreign Policy / National Security, also a traditionally strong issue for Republicans since the Carter Administration, has now swung against them amid the unpopular conflict with Iran.
Direction of Country: Right Track OR Wrong Track?
The Direction of Country Index started the year with 36.3% saying the country is headed in the right direction, essentially unchanged from the year-end reading at 36.1%. In July that percentage fell to just 29.7%, tied with May for lowest level since former President Joe Biden left office in January 2025.
The percentage of registered voters who say it’s off on the wrong track hit 62.0%, eclipsing last month that came in at the highest level since August 2024. This month at -32.6 is slightly less than last month, which marked the widest negative spread since December 2024 at -30.8 compared to just -7.2 in May 2025 before the president bombed three of Iran’s nuclear sites.
White House Focus Tracker
Last year, motivated by repeated concerns raised by voters during interviews, BIG DATA POLL created the White House Policy Focus Tracker. It directly gauges voters’ views towards the administration’s, and indirectly measures the where voters prefer the administration to focus their efforts.
In October, the percentage of voters who said the administration is too focused on foreign policy set a new high at 63.2%, surpassing the previous record at 62.7% measured back in July. Only 13.6% said the administration is too focused on domestic issues and not enough on foreign affairs, a new low. Meanwhile just 23.3% say they are striking the right balance.
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,418 registered voters and 3,214 likely voters nationwide for the Public Polling Project from October 27– 30, 2026. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±1.8% for the registered voter sample and ±1.7% for the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
