Republican Governor Greg Abbott Leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa
Democrat James Talarico holds a slight lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate in Texas. The Lone Star State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for September 2026.
State House Rep. Talarico leads Attorney General Paxton 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters and 44.6% to 41.6% among likely voters on the initial ballot. When undecided voters are asked to lean, the Democrat’s 5-point lead among registered voters shrinks to just 2 points, 46.4% 43.8%, and among likely voters narrows to the same 2-point margin at 46.8% to 44.9%. Undecided likely voters break for Attorney General Paxton.
“Republicans were grossly outspent prior to Labor Day, and now they have unleashed tens of millions of dollars in the Lone Star in the final weeks of the campaign to try to close the gap,” Director BIG DATA POLL Rich Baris said in a statement. “Given who remains undecided not only on preference but participation, there’s a real question of whether they waited too long to begin to spend in a notoriously expensive media market.”
“That said, Attorney General Paxton is not suffering from base depression as badly as other Republican candidates in various states, and that might be the deciding factor if he ends up eking this out.”
Among likely voters most certain to vote, Attorney General Paxton leads by 0.2%, or 46.7% to 46.5. The Republican leads among those extremely enthusiastic to vote 48.2% to 47.5%. However, state Rep. Talarico has a roughly 3 to 1 edge among 2024 defectors over Mr. Paxton, 15.6% to 4.9%.
Gubernatorial Election
Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott Leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 47.1% to 43.5% among likely voters. That lead grows about 2 points when undecided voters are asked to lean, 48.9% to 44.4%. While the Democrat is also winning 2024 defectors in the race for governor, it’s by a still significant albeit lower 2 to 1 margin than the 3 to 1 measured for U.S. Senate, 10.6% to 4.0%.
Generic Congressional Ballot
The Lone Star State is crucial to Democrats and their attempt to flip the U.S. House of Representatives, though mostly the discussion at this point surrounds the size of that majority. While Republicans leads on the statewide Generic Congressional Ballot in Texas, significant slippage among white suburban and Hispanic voters overall put several key districts in danger of flipping to Democrats.
Republicans lead on the statewide Generic Congressional Ballot 44.9% to 40.6% among registered voters and 47.3% to 41.9% among likely voters. When undecided voters are leaned, Republicans slightly expand their lead to 6 points, 48.8% to 43.1% among likely voters.
Trust to Handle Issues
Unlike all other states surveyed by BIG DATA POLL this cycle to date, likely voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle all but one of the most important voting issues in the 2026 midterm cycle.
Republicans are more trusted than Democrats on Cost of Living / Inflation (Rank 1), Democrats have a 46.3% to 42.1%; 47.5% to 40.4% on Economy / Jobs (Rank 2);
Democrats are more trusted to handle Healthcare / ObamaCare (Rank 3), 43.1% to 41.9%.
Republicans lead 49.0% to 35.0% on Crime / Safety (Rank 4) and 51.8% to 36.2% on Immigration / Border Security (Rank 5); 41.4% to 38.5%; 47.7% to 39.2% on Foreign Policy / National Security (Rank 6); and 45.3% to 32.9% on Corruption / Accountability (Rank 7).
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 793 registered voters and 698 likely voters in Texas from September 24 – 26, 2026. Interviews conducted online (≈40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (≈60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
