Base Depression, Defections, and Trust to Handle Issues Continue to Plague Republicans
Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a slight lead over Republican Jon Husted in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio. The Buckeye State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for September 2026.
Former Senator Brown leads Lt. Governor Husted 44.3% to 39.6% among registered voters and 45.5% to 41.6% among likely voters on the initial ballot. When undecided voters are asked to lean, the Democrat’s 4-point lead among registered voters holds, 45.2% 41.2%, but among likely voters narrows to a 3-point margin at 46.3% to 42.6%. Undecided likely voters break for Lt. Governor Husted, a clear sign this race is not over.
“Our poll shows a close race with time running out for Republicans to make up lost ground,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said in a statement. “Democrats again put up an extremely well known candidate who nearly won in 2024 with Donald Trump on the ballot, and him not being on the ballot is presenting Republicans with a real challenge as right-leaning voters still refuse to commit to voting in November.”
“He is a familiar populist and strong candidate in a cycle that continues to deteriorate for the GOP.”
Senator Brown is winning the 2024 defector vote by a more than a 2 to 1 margin. With leaners, 16.8% of voters who backed President Trump in 2024 are supporting the Democrat, while just 7.1% of voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris are backing Lt. Governor Husted.
Trust to Handle Issues
Likely voters in Ohio trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle several key issues, but trail on two out of three of the most important voting issues in the 2026 midterm cycle.
Democrats hold a marginal 43.2% to 42.8% edge on Cost of Living / Inflation (Rank 1), while Republicans hold a marginal 44.5% to 43.2% edge on Economy / Jobs (Rank 2). Democrats are more trusted to handle Healthcare / ObamaCare (Rank 3), 48.3% to 36.5%. Republicans lead 47.8% to 37.5% on Crime / Safety (Rank 3).
2028 President Nominations
Vice President Harris leads a crowded field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination with 22.6% among registered voters and 21.9% among likely voters in the Buckeye State. California Governor Gavin Newsom comes in second place with 15.6% (RV) and 16.2% (LV), while Pete Buttigieg comes in third with 12.7% (LV) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez fourth with 10.1% (LV).
Vice President JD Vance leads his crowded field for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in his home state with 40.0% among registered voters and 40.7% among likely voters. Marco Rubio places second with 14.2% among registered voters and 14.4% among likely voters. Former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard comes in third with 11.4% (RV) and 10.6% (LV), her best performance in statewide contests to date.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 735 registered voters and 680 likely voters in Texas from September 26 – 27, 2026. Interviews conducted online (≈40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (≈60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
