Former Governor Cooper Winning 2024 Defections More than 3 to 1 Over Chairman Whatley
Democrat Roy Cooper Brown holds a solid lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the race for U.S. Senate in North Carolina. The Tar Heel State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for September 2026.
Former Governor Cooper leads the former state and national party chairman 45.2% to 34.2% among registered voters and 47.4% to 35.2% among likely voters on the initial ballot. When undecided voters are asked to lean, the Democrat’s 11-point lead among registered voters holds at 49.3% to 37.8%, but among likely voters widens to a 12-point margin at 50.8% to 38.5%. Undecided likely voters break for former Governor Cooper.
“Our poll shows Governor Cooper above the critical 50% threshold as September comes to an end,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said in a statement. “Democrats put up an extremely well known candidate who is performing very strong in Eastern North Carolina and and once again Republicans have a real challenge with right-leaning voters still refusing to commit to voting in November.”
“In ten years of public polling and outperforming the industry in North Carolina, we have never measured a lead this big for a federal race.”
Governor Cooper is winning the 2024 defector vote by a more than a 3 to 1 margin. With leaners, 17.0% of voters who backed President Trump in 2024 are supporting the Democrat, while just 3.1% of voters who supported Vice President Kamala Harris are backing Chairman Whatley.
2028 President Nominations
Vice President Harris leads a crowded field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination with 30.7% among registered voters and 31.3% among likely voters in the Tar Heel State. Pete Buttigieg comes in second with 14.8% (RV) and 14.5% (LV), California Governor Gavin Newsom comes in third place with 13.6% (RV) and 14.1% (LV), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez fourth with 8.7% (RV) and 8.0% (LV).
Vice President JD Vance leads his crowded field for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination in his home state with 39.2% among registered voters and 40.2% among likely voters. Marco Rubio places second with 18.3% among registered voters and 18.2% among likely voters. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in third with 9.9% (RV) and 9.2% (LV).
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 698 registered voters and 642 likely voters in Texas from September 27 – 29, 2026. Interviews conducted online (≈40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (≈60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
