Ossoff Enjoys Significant Support from 2024 Trump Coalition Voters, Poll Finds Tight Race for Governor
Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has opened up a lead over Republican Mike Collins in the race for U.S. Senate in Georgia. The Peace State Poll was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for September 2026.
Sen. Ossoff leads Rep. Collins 51.0% to 40.1% among registered voters and 52.2% to 41.0% among likely voters on the initial ballot. When undecided voters are asked to lean, the incumbent’s lead among likely voters shrinks on the margin by 1 point to 55.4% to 44.6%. Undecided likely voters break for Rep. Collins, 52.3% to 47.7%.
“Senator Ossoff has made a concerted effort to court men who support President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, citing his alleged mishandling of the Epstein Files and prioritizing foreign policy over affordability,” Director BIG DATA POLL Rich Baris noted in a statement. “That strategy, which we focus tested back in February, was effective and appears to have worked.”
Only 2.9% of voters who supported Vice President Harris in 2024 are voting for Rep. Collins, but 14.3% of voters who backed President Trump in 2024 indicate they will vote for Senator Ossoff. That significant level of defections is not present in the gubernatorial contest.
The race to replace two-term incumbent Governor Brian Kemp is dead even. On the initial ballot, Republican Rick Jackson holds a slight 2-point lead over Democrat Keisha Bottoms 47.6% to 45.7% among registered voters and 48.7% to 46.7% among likely voters. But when undecided voters are asked to lean, they break 62.4% to 37.6% for Bottoms and tighten he race to 50.1% to 49.% among registered voters and 50.5% to 49.5% among likely voters.
2028 President Nominations
Senator Ossoff leads a crowded field for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination with 29.7% among registered voters and 29.6% among likely voters in his home state. Vice President Harris comes in second place with 24.1% (RV) and 24.0% (LV), while California Governor Gavin Newsom comes in third with 12.8% (RV) and 12.9% (LV).
Vice President JD Vance leads a crowded field for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination with 37.3% among registered voters and 37.5% among likely voters. Marco Rubio places second with 14.4% among registered voters and 14.7% among likely voters. Governor Kemp comes in third with 14.4% (RV) and 14.7% (LV). Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is close behind Governor Kemp with 12.8% and 12.9%, respectively.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL nterviewed 712 registered voters and 678 likely voters in Georgia from September 21 – 23, 2026. Interviews conducted online (40%) are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews (60%) including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from either the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details plotted on maps can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results were weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the PUBLIC POLLING PROJECT, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
