More than Twice as Many Biden Voters Switch to Trump than Trump Voters Switch to Biden in Keystone State
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to the Keystone State Poll for November, 2023. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL less than one year out as part of the Rust Belt Poll in the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Mr. Biden continues to lead with older voters age 65 to 74, 46.5% to 34.9%, but trails among super seniors (75+) 43.4% to 38.1%. In a stunning development that is in line with prior results and other surveys, Mr. Trump leads with every single other age group. That includes the largest age group in the electorate—50 to 64 years old—by 45.2% to 37.5%.
The current president has lost support in the general election rematch among younger and non-white voters.
Worth noting, voters who participated in the 2020 presidential election told BIG DATA POLL they voted for Mr. Biden by 50.2% to 47.1%, very close to the actual results. Trump now leads with this group by 1.3%. However, among non-2020 voters, he leads by a massive 17.5%.
Also noteworthy and becoming evident by other public polling, is Mr. Biden’s decline in deep blue urban areas. He leads in Philadelphia by just 46.9% to 24.2% and in Allegheny (Pittsburgh) 40.9% to 37.4%.
“Even if the undecideds in those areas break for Mr. Biden, the levels of support for Mr. Trump are well within his target range to win statewide,” Mr. Baris noted. “In fact, those are the only undecided voters remaining who are favorable to Mr. Biden, with the remaining largely hailing from the West and demographically heavily favor Mr. Trump.”
In a 3-way (plus generic) matchup with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Mr. Trump still leads by 4 points, 39.9% to 36.0%. Mr. Kennedy nabs 7.7% of voters, while 5.7% choose another candidate and 8.4% remain undecided. In a 5-way hypothetical race with Mr. Kennedy, independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump continues to lead. The former president’s support remains at 40.1% to 35.4% for Mr. Biden, 8.6% for Mr. Kennedy, 1.2% for Ms. Stein and 1.0% for Mr. West.
“There comes a point at which Mr. Trump’s support simply refuses to fall any further,” Mr. Baris concluded. “He benefits from more loyal support and his general election opponent appears to be suffering from base fracture.”
One of the regions in which this fracture has damaged the president is in the Northeast, defined below and home to Scranton, Pennsylvania, where he claims as his native hometown. As of today, Mr. Biden could potentially lose Lackawanna and Monroe to Mr. Trump, who he trails in the Northeast, 49.2% to just 23.8%.
The former president holds a massive 50-point lead over the 2024 Republican primary field for the presidential nomination at 60.8%. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trail significantly in a statistical tie, 9.7% to 9.5%, respectively. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy rounds out the top four candidates at 6.2%.
No other candidate breaks 5%.
“The state of Pennsylvania among primary voters is not at all competitive for either of the two major parties,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said. “But the former president’s supporters are dug in, and he’s leading the current president in a rematch in all the right places and among all the right demographics.”
While Joe Biden leads challengers Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., 66.2% to 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively, a smaller percentage of his voters (53.2%) than Trump voters (69.6%) say they cannot be persuaded to change their mind.
“President Biden is far ahead in his primary and I wouldn’t expect an upset in the Keystone State anytime soon,” Mr. Baris added. “But the lack of firmness in his support is concerning for Democrats less than a year out from the general election.”
Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Underwater
Only 19.4% of Keystone State voters strongly approve of the job the president is doing in office, while 42.2% strongly disapprove. His combined approval rating stands at 41.4% with 55.1% disapproval. Among non-white voters, only 28.9% of Black voters, 17.1% of Hispanic voters, and 19.9% of Asian voters strongly approve. Just 18.1 of White voters approve, while 46.4% disapprove. In fact, more than one-third (34.1%) of Black voters disapprove of the job Mr. Biden is doing as president.
The Keystone State Battleground Poll interviewed 1,382 validated registered voters from November 16 to November 19, 2023., to include 624 Republican primary voters and 626 Democratic primary voters. The overall sampling error is ±2.6% at a 95% confidence interval and ± 3.9% at a 95% confidence interval for primary voters. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were screened for eligibility by registration and intent due to closed primary system. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Regional Definitions By County
The Keystone Battleground Poll notably adds two additional regions than traditional exit polls in Pennsylvania and weights accordingly: Dutch and Allegheny. This is done to ensure better representation in rural and suburban areas due to higher participation rates in higher population centers and more metro areas.
- Philadelphia: Philadelphia County
- Southeast: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery
- Northeast: Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Schuylkill, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming
- Dutch: Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, York
- Central: Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk, Forest, Fulton, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren
- West: Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Crawford, Erie, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland
- Allegheny: Allegheny