Trump Has Made Significant Inroads in Southeast Michigan Since 2020
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in the blue-tinted battleground state of Michigan by 5 points, according to the Wolverine State Poll for November, 2023. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL less than one year out as part of the Rust Belt Poll in the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump leads with voters who cast a ballot in 2020 by 3 points, 41.4% to 37.9%, but that lead grows to 14 points among voters who did not. Among likely voters, the margin for the former president remains unchanged at 5 points, 42.1% to 37.1%.
“The most significant finding from this survey could very well be the improved performance of the former president all across the Southeast,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “He has increased his support broadly from the Democratic stronghold of Wayne County to Oakland and Macomb.”
Biden has fallen considerably in Wayne County and Oakland County, while Trump has already shored up his support from 2020 in these areas and increased his lead in Macomb and Monroe. Overall, Trump now leads Biden in the region by 6 points.
Michigan is not one of the more difficult states in regards to ballot access. In 2020, the non-two party candidates and two independent candidates did appear on the ballot statewide for president. In a 5-way hypothetical matchup, Trump maintains a smaller 3-point lead over Biden, 39.2% to 36.2%. Independents Robert F. Kennedy and Cornel West come in at 9.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Green Party candidate Jill Stein draws 1.2% of the vote.
The former president holds a massive 50-point lead over the 2024 Republican primary field for the presidential nomination at 61.4%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley trail significantly, 11.1% to 8.7%, respectively. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy rounds out the top four candidates at 6.3%.
No other candidate breaks 5%.
Of note, non-college voters back Trump 73.6% to 6.8% for DeSantis, while voters with some college or a 2-year degree break 64.6% to 10.2%. A slight majority of voters with 4-year degrees also favor the former president, 51.3%, as do a plurality of voters (47.3%) with advanced degrees.
On the Democratic side, Biden is dominating the field over Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D. Minn., 67.5% to 3.7% and 1.8%, respectively. However, it is notable that 8.9% chose “someone else” and a significant 18.1% were still undecided.
Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Underwater
Only 18.4% of Wolverine State voters strongly approve of the job the president is doing in office, while 42.7% strongly disapprove. His combined approval rating stands at 40.2% with 56.9% disapproval. Among non-white voters, 36.1% of Black voters, 18.4% of Hispanic voters, and 25.5% of Asian voters strongly approve. Just 15.4 of White voters strongly approve, while 48.7% strongly disapprove.
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,273 registered voters (validated) from November 16 to November 19, 2023, to include 596 Republican primary voters and 545 Democratic primary voters. The overall survey sampling error is ±2.7% and sampling errors for the presidential primaries are ±3.9%. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were screened for eligibility by registration and intent due to closed primary system. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education and income, geography and region. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.