Pennsylvania’s First District (PA-01) features incumbent Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick vs. Democratic Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie. It is one of the most closely-watched battleground districts each election cycle.
About Pennsylvania District 1 and the Candidates
Rep. Fitzpatrick notoriously outperforms in the Democratic-trending areas of this district, which includes all of critical swing Bucks County (84.65%) and the more heavily Democratic Montgomery County (15.35%). In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris won this district overall by just 0.32%, with Rep. Fitzpatrick outperforming his party’s presidential ticket (+13.13%) to win the district 56.4% to 43.6%.
While President Donald Trump did carry Bucks County (0.07%), Rep. Fitzpatrick ran far ahead (13.3%). Republican Senator Dave McCormick lost Bucks County to then-incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. by 0.58%. However, Montgomery County voted for Vice President Harris by 2.48% while also backing Rep. Fitzpatrick by 10.10%, an impressive split-ticket margin.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL will interview no less than 600 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s First District (PA-01). The poll will conduct live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS/MMS and text-to-online sourced from the L2 National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online will be given 24 hours to complete the interview. Interview details will be plotted on maps and can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on the locator pins. Results will be weighted for sex, age, race and ethnicity, education, and geography. The overall sampling error is ±4.0% for both the registered voter sample and the likely voter sample at a 95% confidence level. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher.
All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys for the Public Polling Project are crowdfunded, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity.
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