Findings Table

Summary

Big Data Poll conducted a random sample survey of 531 registered Republican voters in Florida’s 27th Congressional District from June 22 to 25, 2018.

On April 30, 2017, popular incumbent Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced that she would not seek re-election in Florida’s 27th Congressional District.

Big Data Poll found Maria Elvira Salazar leading the crowded field with 26.5% of the vote, followed by Bruno Barreiro and Angie Chirino at 16.8% and 13.3%, respectively.

Bettina Rodriguez-Aguilera, the former vice-mayor of Doral, was in fourth place with 6.4% of the vote. Maria Peiro, who was polling at a little over 1%, is now too statistically insignificant to measure. Another 11.9% chose “some other candidate” and a sizable 24.9% were “unsure or undecided.”

“While Salazar is clearly ahead, she is not in the clear,” Big Data Director Rich Baris said. “We know from this latest and prior surveys that the Chirino name is recognizable and draws a certain level of support from the Cuban community.”

Chirino is the daughter of Cuban pop icon Willie Chirino.

Worth noting, Big Data Poll tested remarks Salazar made on the Second Amendment during an interview with Univision in March. Respondents were played the statement over the phone and asked whether it made them “more likely,” “less likely” or “had no impact” on their support.

“I do not see the need for civilians to buy semiautomatic weapons” turned off more than a third of her own base. When asked if those remarks made voters “more likely,” “less likely” or “had no impact” on their choice, 37.2% overall said it made them “more likely” to support Salazar, while a similarly sizable 36.6% said it would make them “less likely” to vote for the former broadcast journalist.

Twenty-two percent (26.2%) said it had no impact.

“This gives us a good idea of the percentage of voters who have truly made up their mind to support Salazar and which voters can still be persuaded,” Mr. Baris added. “The campaign now needs to focus on making their case to those soft voters.”

“Start to peel away some of that soft support, and we would essentially have a three-way race.”

Among voters who initially chose her as their first choice, 33.7% said it made them “less likely” to end up voting for Salazar on August 28th. Among her voters, 59.7% said it made them “more likely” to vote for her and another 2.7% said it had no impact.

The results stand in contrast to another internal poll conducted for Maria Elvira Salazar by the Virginia-based McLaughlin and Associates. The poll found the former Miami-based journalist with a 22-point lead at 38%. Miami-Dade commissioner Bruno Barreiro received 16% and no other candidate received more than 3%. A whopping 36% of voters were undecided.

Crosstabs

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Questionnaire

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Questionnaire ]
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Methodology

Big Data Poll conducted the random sample survey of 531 registered Republican voters in Florida’s 27th Congressional District from June 22 to 25, 2018. Interviews were conducted via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) software designed by Voicent Communications, and respondents were given a Spanish option. The margin of sampling error = +/- 4% with a 95% Confidence Level. The survey was conducted for Angie Chirino for Congress.

Data was weighted for age, race and gender. Weighting for education and income was not necessary given the data collected reflected demographic proportions outlined in the voter files.